The latest Michael Bay sci-fi action sequel Transformers: Age of Extinction has already passed $400 million at the global box office, and is on course for a July 4th weekend tally in the neighborhood of $600 million worldwide.
The film currently stands at $412.6 million in receipts, boosted by massive returns from China. That total doesn’t include figures for today, so expect it to hit around $430 million by close of business later tonight.
Transformers postponed a sizable portion of its international release, in order to avoid suffering from competition with the World Cup, so we’ll be seeing those foreign totals swell repeatedly in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the situation in China is a very good sign for the film’s overall box office prospects (as if it needed more good news). Transformers: Age of Extinction is on pace to top Avatar‘s record as the highest-grossing movie in history in China
That doesn’t mean the robots are actually going to challenge Avatar to a fight for the overall worldwide record or domestic record — a situation that seems unlikely, given the staying power and overwhelming positive critical and audience reception for James Cameron’s blockbuster — but it does mean the film seems like a sure thing for the $1 billion club, and if the receipts look the way I think they will after this weekend, then it appears Bay’s movie could end up in the top-five on the list of highest-grossing films of all time.
The real test of its staying power, though, comes the weekend following the Fourth of July holiday, when Transformers faces off against Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, a film getting rave reviews and a sequel to the 2011 sci-fi film Rise of the Planet of the Apes, a film that took home close to $500 million off strong reviews as well.
If Transformers: Age of Extinction does top $600 million as seems likely this weekend, and if its daily holds next week from Monday through Thursday are strong enough to get it to $700 million, then it should still be able to hit $800 million on its third weekend against Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, setting it up for a good shot at $1 billion by the end of the month, if not sooner.
By passing the $400 million mark, Transformers becomes the eighth film this year to do so, joining X-Men: Days of Future Past, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Maleficent, Godzilla, Rio 2, and The Lego Movie. But once it passes $600 million, it will be only the fifth film to do so in 2014, behind Captain America, the X-Men, Spider-Man, and Angelina Jolie’s Maleficent. As long as we’ve been watching those films and their progressive climbs up the box office ladder, it’s kind of odd and interesting to think Transformers will join them on its second weekend, and pass them all by the following weekend.
The lesson of financial success that comes from significant attention to Chinese audiences and political good will is one Hollywood will no doubt take very much to heart. As international box office continues to outweigh domestic box office in overall importance to the bottom line for movies, and as China becomes the top market for cinematic releases, expect a lot more of this sort of outreach and inclusiveness in Hollywood blockbusters. Which speaks to the long-term importance of opening up Chinese markets to a greater number of Hollywood releases and working to secure much better release schedules and promotional advantages, as well as percentages of ticket sales.
Transformers: Age of Extinction TRAILER 2 (2014)
But whatever negotiations lie in the future, there’s plenty of reason to be happy with the present results. Transformers: Age of Extinction‘s success will help slow this year’s box office slide and counter the domestic slump, and while it might not single-handedly save the day, it will play a big role in whatever degree of mitigation is possible. And if by chance it can actually break out even bigger than anyone expects, and actually do Avengers-level business by the end of its run, that could indeed forestall more gloomy entertainment headlines when summer ends.
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