Are The Republicans Going to Lose Georgia?

If you had asked political commentators two decades ago when Republicans would start to lose control of Georgia, they would not have a certain answer. But a lot of Democrats now are excited, ever since Georgia voted for Biden in the 2020 Presidential Election, saying that Georgia will flip blue in 2022. But is this excitement premature?

According to house and senate control odds, the Republicans have a 51% chance of winning the Senate race in Georgia. And if the voters in Georgia elect the controversial newcomer Herschel Walker, then it’s hard to imagine them rejecting the incumbent Governor Brian Kemp.

Of course, that also means Democrats could have a 49% chance of winning Georgia by at least some small margin, which is easy to get excited over. However, if you were going to be realistic, there are tiers of excitement, where Republicans are more likely to lose some races over others. To understand why there won’t be a clean ballot sweep, read on.

Warnock vs. Walker for Senate

The Senate race between Reverend Raphael Warnock and former football star Herschel Walker is the race where Republicans are most likely to lose. There are multiple factors why.

Warnock, even though it has not been long since he was elected, is still the incumbent, which brings with it advantages which can’t be ignored. He has also consistently remained ahead of Walker in the polls, report FiveThirtyEight.

Warnock has also significantly out-fundraised Walker. According to OpenSecrets, Warnock has raised over $86 million in funds, while Walker has a little under $32 million. About 1.5% of both candidates’ contribution totals come from PACs, by the way, as of the writing of this article.

This race is unique for Georgia in the fact that two Black men are squaring off for the Senate seat. The possibility of this face-off can be traced back to grassroots effort to enfranchise the Black vote while the minority community in the urban and suburban areas of Georgia swell due to migration from other parts of the country. Many people see this movement to empower the Black vote as being led by Stacy Abrams.

Kemp vs. Abrams for Governor

Part of the summary of the Georgia races in September 2022 was that “the governor’s race is more squarely in Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s column.” But the caveat here is that enough support from voting age Black people may tip the election in Abram’s favor.

Since this race is a rematch, both candidates benefit from high name recognition. Both are also well-liked by their base demographics.

Kemp is well regarded by mainstream Republicans for sticking with conservative interpretations of current policy issues, such as preventing companies from limiting open-carry of guns, and favoring Trump’s rhetoric, but not his false stolen election allegations. Meanwhile, Stacy Abrams has the support and respect of Democrats throughout the state and nation, and she was almost Biden’s running mate, thanks to her organization of Georgia’s grassroots.

Even though Abrams has fundraised over $85 million for 2022, outpacing Kemp by a few million, this does not guarantee a win. Remember back in 2020? Jaime Harrison, the Democratic challenger to Senator Lindsey Graham, lost his race by a mile despite fundraising and spending a record-breaking $100 million.

Kemp is still a few points ahead of Abrams, based on the average of recent polling numbers as of the writing of this article. It may come down to whether Black voters care more about abortions or the economy as election day nears.

More Black voters than ever before view abortion as morally acceptable, think it should be legal in most cases, and connect it to control over one’s body and healthcare. This would imply that, since the Dodds decision and Kemp’s rollback of abortion protections, Abrams would benefit from upset Black voters.

However, as the anger over abortion rights being revoked has to deal with the passage of time, the pervasive threat of inflation and a harsh economy of jobs may make Black voters more inclined to favor Republicans or lead to them not voting.

The State Legislature

Every time a census is conducted, the borders of legislative districts must be redrawn so that they are proportional in how many people each politician represents. This happened in Georgia in 2020, and, like usual, the resulting map seemed to favor the candidates of the party that controlled the Georgia legislature at the time (i.e., the Republicans).

This phenomenon is called ‘gerrymandering’, and it is practiced across the country and political spectrum. Its significance to Georgia in 2022, though, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, is the continued consolidation of state legislative power and representation.

But the Georgia GOP was more subtle with these maps, and commentators noted how Republicans may lose a few seats in the State House and Senate in 2022, but the races in the future will be much less likely to be competitive. This, of course, benefits the Republican party, which will retain their majority in seats in both chambers of the legislature.